3rd Quarter 2008 SWS Survey: President

Third Quarter 2008 Social Weather Survey:
Noli De Castro, Manny Villar, and Loren Legarda
are people's top recommendees for 2010

Social Weather Stations

Vice-President Noli De Castro, Senate President Manny Villar, and Senator Loren Legarda are the top recommended successors to President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in 2010, according to the Third Quarter 2008 Social Weather Survey, fielded over September 24-27, 2008.

To the survey question, "Sa ilalim ng kasalukuyang Konstitusyon, ang termino ni Pang. Arroyo ay hanggang sa taong 2010 lamang at magkakaroon ng halalan para sa pagka-pangulo sa Mayo 10, 2010. Sinu-sino sa palagay ninyo ang mga magagaling na lider na dapat pumalit kay Pang. Arroyo bilang Presidente? Maaari po kayong magbanggit ng hanggang tatlong sagot." [Under the present Constitution, the term of Pres. Arroyo is up to 2010 only, and there will be an election for a new President in May 2010. Who do you think are good leaders who should succeed Pres. Arroyo as President? You may give up to three names], 29% named Vice-President De Castro, 28% named Senate President Villar, and 26% named Sen. Legarda.

No list of names was provided to prompt the respondents.

They were followed by Sen. Panfilo Lacson (17%), Sen. Francis Escudero (16%), former President Joseph Estrada (13%), and Sen. Mar Roxas (13%).

The survey found 1% mentioning Pres. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, MMDA Chairman Bayani Fernando, Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV, Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile, Sen. Francis Pangilinan, Sen. Mirriam Defensor-Santiago, Sen. Richard Gordon, Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, Cong. Jose De Venecia, Sen. Jamby Madrigal, and Sen. Pia Cayetano.

Nine percent could not give an answer, and 9% had no one to recommend.

Compared to the previous quarter, those with an increase in mentions were: Senate President Villar, by 3 points, Sen. Escudero, by 2 points, former President Estrada, by 2 points, and Sen. Lacson, by 1 point. The question wording has been exactly the same in the past five quarterly surveys shown in Table 1.

The mentions of Vice-President De Castro's name went down by 2 points, while the mentions of Sen. Legarda and Sen. Roxas were steady.

Survey Background

The Third Quarter of 2008 Social Weather Survey was conducted over September 24-27, 2008 using face-to-face interviews of 1,500 adults in Metro Manila, the Balance of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±2.5% for national percentages, ±6% for Metro Manila, Visayas and Mindanao, and ±4% for Balance Luzon). The area estimates were weighted by National Statistics Office medium-population projections for 2008 to obtain the national estimates.

The survey item on the recommended leaders to succeed Pres. Arroyo is not commissioned, but is done on SWS's own initiative and released as a public service, with first printing rights assigned to BusinessWorld.

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Table 1

7 November 2008